For AGI to do most human work for <$25/hr by 2043, many things must happen.
Use this interactive web app to forecast individual events and see what they imply about the likelihood of transformative AGI by 2043.
Compute needed by AGI, relative to a human brain (1e20-1e21 FLOPS)
Compute cost efficiency, relative to 2023 (4e14 FLOPS/$/hr)